For every analysis: what the price implies, what rigorous valuation demands — explained at the depth you choose.
Each report presents independently constructed DCF scenarios — always including a Reverse DCF and a Conservative case.
At $162/share the prospectus asks you to believe simultaneously in Starlink's global dominance...
| Parameter | Implied |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 2026–35 | ~13% |
| EBITDA margin (terminal) | ~45% |
| Starlink subscribers 2035E | 35–50M |
| AI revenue 2035E | ~$37B |
| Terminal revenue 2035E | ~$89B |
| WACC | 11.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 3.5% |
| Implied Enterprise Value | ~$190B |
| Variable | Bull / IPO | Conservative |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | ~13% | ~7.6% |
| EBITDA margin (terminal) | ~45% | ~37% |
| Starlink subs 2035E | 35–50M | ~20–25M |
| AI EBIT margin LT | 20%+ | 10–12% |
| WACC | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Item | USD M |
|---|---|
| PV of FCFs (10Y) | 25,765 |
| PV Terminal Value (g=2%) | 19,907 |
| Enterprise Value | 45,672 |
| + Net Cash | +15,852 |
| Equity Value | 58,324 |
| Price / share | $49 |
| vs IPO price | −70% |
| WACC \ g | g=1.0% | g=1.5% | g=2.0% | g=2.5% | g=3.0% | g=3.5% | g=4.0% |
|---|
IPO price: $162. Cells within ±$10 of IPO are outlined.
| Parameter | Reverse DCF | Conservative |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 2026–35 | ~13% | ~7.6% |
| EBITDA margin (terminal) | ~45% | ~37% |
| Starlink subs 2035E | 35–50M | ~20–25M |
| WACC | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Enterprise Value (USD B) | ~$190B | ~$46B |
| Price / share | $162 | $49 |
| vs IPO price | 0% | −70% |
PER of 6x. Net cash of CNY 33B. Revenue growing at 20%.
| Parameter | Implied |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 2026–28 | ~15% |
| Revenue CAGR 2029–35 | ~5% |
| EBIT Margin (terminal) | 7.0–7.5% |
| CapEx / Revenue | 4.0% → 3.2% |
| WACC | 12.24% |
| Terminal growth (g) | ~3.2% |
| EV implied | ~111,000 M CNY |
| + Net Cash | +32,985 M CNY |
| Metric (CNY M) | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | 300,287 | 360,906 | 412,719 | 455,549 |
| Growth | +11.2% | +20.2% | +14.4% | +10.4% |
| EBIT | 23,518 | 21,207 | 26,770 | 26,869 |
| CapEx | 14,654 | 14,433 | 13,388 | 12,150 |
| FCF (consensus) | 5,476 | 9,510 | 26,256 ⚠ | ~20,500 |
| Item | CNY M |
|---|---|
| PV of FCFs (10Y) | 138,871 |
| PV Terminal Value (g=3%) | 150,718 |
| Enterprise Value | 289,589 |
| + Net Cash | +32,985 |
| Price / share | 55.6 CNY · +124% |
| Variable | Consensus | Conservative |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 2026–28 | ~17% | ~10% |
| Revenue CAGR 2029–35 | ~7–9% | ~4% |
| EBIT Margin LT | 6.5–7.5% | 5.5–6.5% |
| CapEx / Revenue | 4.0% → 2.3% | 4.5% → 3.5% |
| Tax rate | 15% | 18% |
| WACC | 10.54% | 13.11% |
| g terminal | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Item | CNY M |
|---|---|
| PV of FCFs (10Y) | 51,411 |
| PV Terminal Value (g=2%) | 49,530 |
| Enterprise Value | 100,941 |
| + Net Cash | +32,985 |
| Equity Value | 133,926 |
| Price / share | 23.1 CNY |
| vs current price | −7% |
| WACC \ g | g=1.5% | g=2.0% | g=2.5% | g=3.0% | g=3.2% | g=3.5% | g=4.0% |
|---|
Current price: 24.8 CNY. Cells within ±2.5 CNY are outlined in gold.
| Parameter | Reverse DCF | Consensus | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 2026–28 | ~15% | ~17% | ~10% |
| EBIT Margin (terminal) | 7.0–7.5% | 6.5–7.5% | 5.5–6.5% |
| WACC | 12.24% | 10.54% | 13.11% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Price / share | 24.8 CNY | 55.6 CNY | 23.1 CNY |
| vs current price | 0% | +124% | −7% |
At $201/share the market asks you to believe the AI capex supercycle is permanent.
| Parameter | Implied |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR FY2026–28 | ~58% (consensus) |
| EBIT Margin (terminal) | 65–67% |
| CapEx / Revenue | 2.0–2.8% |
| Market-implied WACC | ~13.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 2.0% |
| + Net Cash | +$54,088M |
| USD M | FY2025A | FY2026A | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (USD M) | 130,497 | 215,938 | 391,655 | 551,664 |
| Growth | +114% | +65% | +81% | +41% |
| EBIT (USD M) | 86,789 | 137,300 | 258,314 | 361,916 |
| CapEx (USD M) | 3,236 | 6,042 | 8,517 | 11,199 |
| FCF (USD M) | 60,853 | 96,676 | 212,527 | 271,897 |
| Item | USD M |
|---|---|
| PV of FCFs (10Y) | 2,679,911 |
| PV Terminal Value (g=3.5%) | 4,350,590 |
| Enterprise Value | 7,030,501 |
| + Net Cash | +54,088 |
| Price / share | $292 · model / $299 analyst avg |
| Variable | Consensus | Conservative |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR FY2026–28 | ~58% | ~40% |
| EBIT Margin (terminal) | 65–67% | 60–63% |
| FCF vs consensus | 100% | −20% |
| WACC | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Item | USD M |
|---|---|
| PV of FCFs (10Y) | 1,672,222 |
| PV Terminal Value (g=1.5%) | 1,053,459 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,725,681 |
| + Net Cash | +54,088 |
| Equity Value | 2,779,769 |
| Price / share | $114 |
| vs current price | −43% |
| WACC \ g | g=1.0% | g=1.5% | g=2.0% | g=2.5% | g=3.0% | g=3.5% | g=4.0% |
|---|
Current price: $201. Cells within ±$20 are outlined in green. WACC=10.0% ◂ = Consensus. WACC=12.0% ◂ ≈ current price.
| Parameter | Reverse DCF | Consensus | Conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR FY2026–28 | ~58% (consensus) | ~58% | ~40% |
| EBIT Margin (terminal) | 65–67% | 65–67% | 60–63% |
| FCF vs consensus | 100% | 100% | −20% |
| WACC | 13.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Terminal growth (g) | 2.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Price / share | $201 | $299 | $114 |
| vs current price | 0% | +49% | −43% |
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